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Executive Summary Detailed Study
Thank you for your interest in HOME and the information contained in Homes For The Future: Estimating 2015 Housing Demand in Ventura County and Its Cities. HOME is a nonprofit coalition of housing advocates. As a part of HOME’s continuing efforts to provide understanding of the local crisis in housing affordability, this study offers a first-time look at the housing demand by analysis of the social and economic impacts of Ventura County’s age and tenure-based cohorts (household groups by lifecycle stages), giving new insights to future needs using the latest census data.
Why did HOME commission this study?
An integral part of HOME’s mission is to seek and publish information pertinent to the regional housing situation. Previous studies on land use have addressed the supply of available vacant acreage and/or redevelopment sites and ultimate capacity to build housing. HOME took the approach of looking at emerging demand for various types of housing, based on current consumption by age groups, and how that demand will be met.
Who did this study?
Solimar Research Group, a public policy analysis firm based in Ventura, California that focuses on growth and land use issues.
What we found out…
If current trends of building predominately single-family detached housing continue, housing production will not be sufficient to meet estimated demand based on population increases by the year 2015, falling short by up to 1200 homes per year. Factoring in the population segments projected to experience the greatest increases, and smaller household sizes as a result, the demand for smaller, multi-family housing units could be much greater than we are building today
Eighty percent of housing demand is “home-grown,” not in-migration from outside of Ventura County.
What should we be building?
This study projects that between 2000 and 2015 the demand for single family detached homes will be fifty percent for ownership units, yet in the past few years, eighty percent of all new units constructed in Ventura County were single-family units. California construction defect liability laws may have a profound effect on the ability to meet the demand for multi-family dwellings, unless major litigation reform is enacted.
What do we do about it?
HOME advocates change of our land use and permitting policies and patterns to encourage more high-density, compact development on infill sites as a means of promoting greater housing availability and affordability while preserving open space and a jobs/housing balance that will allow our local economy to thrive.
Who should read this study?
Neighborhood councils Business owners
Planning officials Builders and developers
Elected officials Concerned citizens
Homes For The Future: Estimating 2015 Housing Demand in Ventura County and Its Cities answers the following questions:
1. What is the shortfall, by city, in the number of housing units produced versus demand per year?
2. Is the type of housing produced meeting demand, such as rental versus owner-occupied, affordability, and “move-up” ability?
3. Is in-migration from outside Ventura County a factor in the ability to achieve greater affordability for existing residents?
4. What is the number of commuters driving out of the county to jobs versus those driving in from outside of Ventura County?
5. Is there a demand for local luxury or executive level housing in the West County cities?
6. What is the demand for residences of four or more bedrooms relative to supply?
Attached is the Executive Summary of the report produced by Solimar Research Group. For the complete study, please visit HOME’s web site at www.vcHOME.org .
HOME would like to sincerely thank Affinity Bank (based in Ventura, California) for its assistance in funding a portion of this study.
HOME is a volunteer coalition of civic organizations, businesses, elected officials and interested individuals committed to creating a more positive environment for increasing the housing supply in each of Ventura County’s communities. Through programs that educate and engage residents, planners and elected officials, the organization advocates for greater availability and affordability of housing for people of all income levels.
1601 Carmen Drive, Suite 215
Camarillo, California 93010
805-377-0162
www.vcHOME.org | 
